Monday, September 23, 2013

Beat the bookmakers with this two way bet betting system By Andrew Clark

Beat the bookmakers with this two way bet betting system: "Any time you see bookies trying sell 'special' new bets, you can bet your bottom dollar that they are trying to steer us away from more lucrative and flexible alternatives. "

One relatively recent example of this is so called 'double chance' bets, which offer two bites at the cherry – a team to win or draw – all in one easy bet. At an artificially reduced price. This market can look particularly tempting when you are sure that a team's odds are too long, but are not sure whether they will win or draw.

Matches that fit this criteria present themselves with alarming regularity as bookies price up 'big teams' at too-short odds on prices to limit their liabilities on lumpy singles, patriotic punts from one eyed fans, and floods of accas from the casual Saturday coupon brigade. As a result, the odds on their opponents and the draw are usually very juicy indeed.

One prime example from the 2011/12 season springs to mind immediately – Liverpool's happy knack of repeatedly failing to win at home. Despite this, they were priced up again and again as if they were in majestic form, the camel coats rubbing their hands together with glee as bet after bet went south and their pockets bulged.

When you spot a match that fits the criteria outlined above, there are a few options. The aforementioned 'double chance', the draw, an outright bet on the long odds team, a 'draw no bet' punt on the underdog, or a bet on the longshot in the +1 goal handicap market. All of these bets share at least one of two unattractive characteristics – either the price becomes very average, or only one outcome is any good to the punter. We've all been there – you watch in dismay as the valiant heroes you backed at fancy prices take and hold a merited one nil lead until the ninety-third minute when some outrageous slice of luck results in a wholly undeserved equaliser. The two way simply means that we bet on the draw and on the underdog to win. And if we find two or three of these matches, some very juicy accumulated odds with multiple winning outcomes are possible.

Let's say we had found two other similarly priced matches that afternoon which met our criteria. To combine them into a 'two way treble' we would need to have eight bets (trebles) in all:

(W = underdog win, X = draw, example odds H4/6 D16/5 A5/1)
WWW
WWX
WXW
XWW
WXX
XWX
XXW
XXX

The best possible winning outcome? The three underdogs all win to land accumulated odds of 215/1. The worst case winning scenario is that all three draw at accumulated odds of 73/1. The potential returns represent real value in my view, as there's no way these odds are a true reflection of the actual chances of any winning combination occurring, and over the course of a season you only need to get the odd one right for some very healthy returns.

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